A “Super” El Niño Is Coming. The Omega 3 Supply Chain Isn’t Ready.
A strong, potentially severe El Niño event is forming.
Climate agencies are already tracking rising Pacific Ocean temperatures, signalling the start of a major shift in global weather systems. If forecasts are correct, this could become one of the most disruptive El Niño cycles in years.
And while most headlines focus on floods, droughts and extreme weather, there’s another consequence flying under the radar:
The decline of fish oil supplies.
What actually is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate cycle that appears every 2–7 years. It happens when surface waters in the Pacific Ocean warm significantly, disrupting weather patterns across the globe.
The impacts are wide-reaching:
- Flooding and storms across parts of the Americas
- Drought and wildfire risk across Asia and Australia
- Shifts in hurricane activity and ocean ecosystems worldwide
But beyond the weather headlines, El Niño also hits global food production - especially marine supply chains.
Why El Niño matters for fish oil
Peruvian fishermen have been observing El Niño for centuries. In fact, they named it. Every few years, around Christmas, fish stocks would suddenly disappear. They called the phenomenon El Niño - “The Child.”
What they were seeing was the collapse of nutrient-rich ocean upwelling caused by warming waters.
When that happens:
- Cold-water species like anchovies move deeper or offshore
- Fish become harder to catch and are less likely to survive or reproduce
- Fisheries see sharp drops in productivity
That matters because Peru’s anchovy fisheries sit at the centre of the global fish oil industry. So the less anchovies they can catch – the less the supply of fish oil.
We’ve seen this pattern before; strong El Niño years consistently trigger price spikes, shortages and instability across Omega 3 markets.
For pet food manufacturers relying on fish oil, it can radically affect their supply chains and therefore their pet food formulations.
This year, the pressure is stacking up
The challenge isn’t just El Niño.
Global supply chains are already under strain from geopolitical instability, shipping disruption and growing competition for marine resources.
Add a severe climate event into the mix and the pressure compounds fast:
- Supply shortages
- Price volatility
- Longer lead times
- Greater competition for limited raw materials
In short: the traditional Omega 3 supply chain is being stress-tested from multiple angles at once.
Why are we still dependent on wild fisheries?
There’s a more resilient way to produce Omega 3, and it starts by going back to the original source.
Microalgae.
Fish don’t actually produce Omega 3 themselves. They accumulate it by eating algae further down the food chain. So instead of relying on wild-caught fish, you can go directly to the source.
Why algae-based Omega 3 is different
- Stable pricing with future guarantees - no dependence on fish catches or ocean conditions
- Reliable supply - grown on land in controlled production systems
- Same functional benefits - delivering equivalent DHA performance
- Cleaner ingredient profile - free from heavy metals, microplastics and ocean contaminants
- More sustainable - reducing pressure on marine ecosystems
- Consistent high quality - batch-to-batch DHA levels grown to spec
- Plant-based and highly bioavailable
- Produced using by-products from the whisky industry
This isn’t about replacing fish oil because it sounds good in a sustainability report.
It’s about building a supply chain that can actually withstand environmental and geopolitical shocks.
Time to rethink Omega 3?
If this El Niño develops as forecast, the effects will ripple through global food systems and fish oil markets will feel it quickly.
For brands formulating the next generation of pet nutrition products, the conversation is changing.
The question is no longer:
“Why switch away from fish oil?”
It’s:
“Why stay exposed to a supply chain this fragile?”
The companies that future-proof their Omega 3 supply now will be the ones least exposed to the next climate shock.
And the smartest place to start is the source itself.